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US president Donald Trump last night announced a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran if Iran agrees to allow ships carrying crucial oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices fell sharply to be trading at below $100 a barrel in immediate response but are unlikely to return to pre-war levels of around $70 a barrel due to the damage sustained in the region, industry experts suggested.
The conditional ceasefire, coming during the sixth week of the conflict, came as Pakistan acted as an intermediary between the US and Iran.
It was confirmed less than two hours before the deadline Trump set for further attacks on Iran.
While the move to halt military action in the region will be welcomed by the global travel industry, the damage inflicted could take years to repair while doubts remain over the future once the fortnight’s ceasefire period ends.
Advantage Travel Partnership chief executive Julia Lo Bue-Said said: "The two-week ceasefire announced between the United States and Iran is a moment of genuine, if cautious, relief for the global travel industry.
“Since hostilities began, the travel sector has absorbed some of its most severe shocks since the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Millions of travellers were stranded worldwide due to airspace closures that grounded thousands of flights and the subsequent surges in oil and gas prices have caused wide disruptions across the aviation sector.
“As is usual across our industry, we have once again shown remarkable resilience. But what it needs most right now is not a ceasefire, it needs lasting peace."
Iata director general Willie Walsh suggested it will take months, rather than weeks, for jet fuel supplies and prices to normalise even if the Strait of Hormuz remains open.
He said: “It will still take a period of months to get back to where supply needs to be given the disruption to the refining capacity in the Middle East. I don’t think it’s going to happen in weeks.”
Air New Zealand revealed a “small number” of schedule changes for travel across May and June, blaming “the ongoing impact of high jet fuel costs”.
The airline said: “These consolidations affect around 4% of flights but only 1% of total passengers due to travel across this period.
“We have worked hard to keep disruption to a minimum, with the vast majority of impacted customers still travelling on the same day.
“Like airlines globally, we’re experiencing jet fuel prices that are more than double what they would usually be.
“This is driving higher costs across the industry, and we’ve made further increases to some airfares to help manage this.
“We remain focused on keeping New Zealanders connected and maintaining a reliable, fuel-efficient schedule. Customers whose updated flight doesn’t suit their plans can choose a refund or credit. If you don’t hear from us, your flight is operating as scheduled.”
Meanwhile, Malaysia Airlines is to run two special flights to London this month to help travellers affected by the Middle East conflict return home.
The move by the airline was disclosed ahead of ceasefire agreement.
MAS said: “The airline will operate ad-hoc Kuala Lumpur–London flights on 18 and 22 April 2026 to accommodate passengers affected by recent Middle Eastern carrier disruptions.”